Or: The Idiot's Guide to Climate Change.
I am not unaware that these issues are controversial. I will try to stick to the facts as much as I can but to add local flavour, every expert in this matter I have known seems really glum and despondent. It is hard to talk about Climate Change with people who know what they are on about because it all comes back to
"oh fuck oh fuck oh fuck" in the end. And the rocking. And the sobbing.
In the last few thousand years, our planet has had a reasonably stable climate. The places nearer the poles have had things called seasons and rain has fallen on certain places, avoided others. Generally speaking. Plants and animals have adapted to these conditions, that is to say, if you have a plant or an animal which can survive then it does and if you have something that cannot, then it does not.
Living things mutate on a random basis. Usually these mutations are bad and it dies before making seeds or young. Occasionally, the mutation is neither good nor bad and maybe it carries on reproducing and maybe it does not. Very rarely, the mutation means that it does better than the existing animals or plants and the mistake in the code becomes a feature.
As you can imagine, this would take a long time. A really really long time. And plants do not look around and say "THIS IS A DESERT, I better make cactus seeds, by Jove" and animals do not stretch their neck and become giraffes.
It takes such an incredibly long time that some people (unused to thinking about painful spans of time), doubt it happened like this at all. But if you talk to them, you see that their alternative ideas make no predictions that can be checked. And so, you can dismiss them out of hand, if you are so inclined.
The living things on this planet compete for resources like territory or water and sometimes they cooperate. Whatever gets their genes into the next generation.
Things die out. It is all part of it. When a species dies out though, it impacts on their food chain. It is good news for some living things and bad news for others. Everything is connected. It is best that extinctions happen on a small scale, in order for such systems to recover and regroup.
Extinctions do happen on a massive scale though, humans have found skeletons of huge lizards who died out suddenly millions of years ago. What killed them?
Some people say "a rock from space" and point to a massive hole next to central America and a suspicious layer of a rare metal buried deep under rocks. Almost as if a huge rock from space made of a rare metal broke up, melted and bounced and landed all over the world (not necessarily in that order). So, dust was thrown up and blocked out the sun and everything big died of hunger.
Some people say "a catastrophic number of volcanoes spewing out dark clouds, doing the same sun-blocking out thing"... and they point to volcanic rock and evidence of volcanic gases and other things that point to volcanoes.
There is no real answer, but both camps can make predictions of what things might look like if Scenario A happened or Scenario B. They look for evidence and one day someone will find something that gives the answer much more definitively but as you can imagine, this is bloody hard to do.
Humans have only been on this planet for a very short time, comparatively speaking. They are a bit different from the other animals in a lot of ways but in the major ones, they are exactly the same.
For example, some lions killed a rare tiger in a zoo because they thought the tiger was in their territory and this was upsetting for them. Humans do this all the time. Humans see animals that they see as a threat or as being delicious and they kill them even if they are rare.
Animals will hunt things to extinction, given half a chance. Animals will destroy their habitat if there are too many of them. If you have ever seen the state of a chicken coop, you know what I mean.
Humans can use tools and have been doing for a long time. Recently, they started doing things on an industrial scale and this is when the trouble started. These processes which make life so much easier for humans, often release pollutants. For example, burning certain fuels can release gases which acidify rain and damage plants. Growing food on a mass scale (however you do it), means chemicals leak into the water table and upset the balance of oxygen and disrupts original food chains. Chemicals which are really useful for making plastics, damage a layer in the atmosphere made of a type of oxygen which bounces harmful energy from the sun back into space.
Our planet is a bit different from the other planets. It has a lot of water in all three states (solid, liquid and gas) and it has life. Lots of life. Even in really stupid places like on nuclear power station fuel rods. It is able to support a range of life forms because it is a steady temperature and the temperature is not too hot, or too cold. It is JUST RIGHT, just like in that story with the porridge.
The way this happens is really clever. There are several layers of gases which can be turned into sugar and starch and protein. There are other gases which allow more complicated creatures to wander around looking for things made out of sugar, starch and protein to eat.
There is a gas called "carbon dioxide" which is about 0.04% of the atmosphere (not a lot, right?) but without it, plants would stop being able to grow.
It also traps heat. When heat from the sun hits the planet, it is reflected back into space but it gets reflected back by this chemical and this allows the planet to stay warm overnight and keep a fairly stable temperature range. There are other gases which do this, to be sure and some of them (like methane, think cow farts) are much better at it. It is like a nice woolly jumper. It is like being in a greenhouse.
If something were to increase the levels of these gases, it could mean that not enough heat escaped and this could lead to the planet getting warmer and having a warmer temperature range. The sorts of thing that increase these gases include breathing out and burning organic matter (wood, oil, natural gas, poop, plant oil, coal etc)
Other things that might make the planet warmer include the planet getting closer to the Sun or the Sun getting hotter or even something we do not know about.
Though, these ideas make predictions such as "the Earth has moved orbit, so the stars will be in slightly different places in the sky" or "the Sun is hotter, so we can measure a hotter surface temperature using solar temperature detecting equipment" or "when the Sun is cooler, the planet is cooler, we can look back through history of the planet and the sun and check if that was true."
And what do you know, none of these predictions have evidence to back them.
If you thought that people were causing a shift in our planet's temperature with these gases, then you look at graphs of the planet's temperature and graphs of how much of these gases were in the atmosphere.
If the temperature went up when the gases were released more, we have evidence to support our idea. (and it seems to be the case)
The trouble is getting this evidence, equipment is improving all the time, so measurements in the past were less precise.
The nagging doubt that this is just part of a broader cycle, that we did not cause, can be checked by looking back as far as possible. This is fraught with difficulty because what can you look at to check what the average temperature was before thermometers were invented? How can you check the concentration of carbon dioxide in a year before people knew it was even a thing?
So, of course, this is difficult to call but for what it is worth, a lot of very wise and educated people have checked this evidence for themselves and think that
1) The climate is changing
and
2) People are causing it
Go get an education, check the evidence for yourself and see what you think. Do not rely on gut instinct here. It is not appropriate.
This is a bit worrying now. If the planet has a warmer temperature range, then things like weather will change.
For example, a lot more water will evaporate from the sea, which makes fuller clouds, which means that there will be higher rainfall in some areas. And areas that would have been rained on in the past are missed out because the cloud was so full, it emptied earlier.
For example, trees might burn. Which releases lots of carbon dioxide. Which makes things warmer. Leaving behind brown ground and ashes which absorb more heat. Which makes things warmer. Which prevents plants (which needed a lower temperature range) from growing. Which means the gases are not collected up. Which means a higher temperature. Which means animals, plants, fungi etc which relied on these trees will die out.
For example, ice caps might start melting. Which means the seas at the poles are darker (less reflective white ice), which makes the ice melt faster. And if the ice on the continent Antarctica melts, then the sea levels will rise because there is more water in play. And if the ice anywhere melts, the animals which used it as a habitat have nowhere to hunt and if it happens quickly, there is not much chance they will have a random mutation which saves the day.
If the sea levels rise, this means coastal areas will be flooded with salt water.
For example, sea water is warmed by the sun and rises and travels north and warms up countries like Great Britain. The saltiness of the water is important in its buoyancy. If the oceans get deeper (because of melted ice caps), then maybe the rising and sinking might not happen anymore (or in the same way it did)
For example, if the sea is warmer and air runs over it and starts a storm, the storm will have much more energy and this means it can totally destroy inland areas and it means it will happen much more often.
Even without warming, having a lot of carbon dioxide is a terrible thing for sea creatures because carbon dioxide dissolves in water to make a weak acid. If there is more carbon dioxide, it can make the seas slightly more acidic which means that animals with shells (or whathaveyou) are damaged and weakened by the change in acidity.
Even if we forget that animals and plants are unable to keep up with how fast things are changing, we must remember that if places flood too often, people must move inland. Or if places suffer drought too often, people need to get food somewhere else. This is not good. The conflict in Darfur was caused in part by drought. If the climate changes dramatically, people are going to be at a greater risk of war, disease and famine.
Meanwhile, let's go back to those animals and plants. Some of them are important to us, either for being delicious or beautiful or something, if they cannot keep up with the pace of change, they will be lost. And maybe animals or plants that we do not value die, their loss is likely to resonate all the way across the food chain and hurt things we do value.
In Copenhagen, next month, there will be a conference to try to come up with solutions to this. The people there broadly agree that it is human activity which is changing our climate and they broadly agree that something needs to be done.
However, their solution is so patently ridiculous as to be pathological.
They have reduced it into an operation of bean-counting. Say you want to burn some tyres. To dissuade you from this, they propose charging you a special "carbon credit" and once you pay it, you are welcome to burn away. You get this credit by paying someone else NOT to burn tyres. Or to plant a couple of trees.
Now change "you" to "rich countries" and "someone else" to "poor countries".
And it does not work. Firstly (and most importantly) because the science is dodgy. Secondly, because people are massive selfish pricks and ignore the rules if it means that they get what they want.
They propose to agree to "cut" emissions. But there is nothing to stop them from ignoring their targets and in fact, last time they made promises, that is exactly what they did. Ignored them.
What needs to be done is so fundamental and so life changing that no rich country wants to suggest it.
Our way of life, you see, is sick. Have a look around you at all your stuff. How did it get to your place?
Usually, it was raw materials somewhere, driven somewhere else, made into useful raw materials, driven somewhere else, assembled as a product, driven somewhere else, bought by you and driven home. You can substitute "driven" with "flown" in some cases.
All that driving. All those factories and warehouses with their lights and air conditioning and radios. All burning up fuels which release gases.
Look inside your food cupboards. Food, grown somewhere else, driven somewhere, packaged, driven somewhere else, prepared, driven somewhere else, bought by you, driven home. Again, some of it flown in.
Meat has a layer of energy use that veg does not have. Animals must be fed, kept warm, driven to abattoirs and so on. Not to mention, they waste a lot of the plant energy by generating heat, moving and making noises and so on. Not to mention, the gases that come out of their bottoms and their mouths make the world warmer.
Then think of your life. The journeys you make, necessary and unnecessary. The amount of gases released in order to power your journey. The way that some forms of transport are higher up in the sky than others and are therefore up to three times worse than on the ground.
Now, think of the things you have running. Radiators, computers, radios, lights, cookers, washing machines...
If we have any chance of halting this catastrophe we will need to decrease our quality of life significantly. No more plastic crap in cereal packets. No more flights. No more animal products. No more waste.
And that is horrifying. Rich people's lives are AWESOME, it would be madness to give it up. So, people say things like "oh, ride a bike everywhere and stick to public transport... uhh... put a thick jumper on... use energy saving lightbulbs, give home made gifts... only buy what you need... walk to a farm/use a farmer's market... insulate your home... recycle everything" and they are not wrong, this advice is great.
But it is not enough. The entire system needs to change. It needs to be seen as gross incompetence to fly people to meetings, the system of feeling bad until you buy something new needs to end, factories need to shut, personal transport needs to be based on something other than oil, food needs to be sourced locally; meat, milk and eggs need to be a "sometimes food". And understandably, there is a certain resistance.
Instead of proposing real change that will keep the temperature stable(ish), the conference will propose things like carbon credits and pretend like telling citizens to ride a bike is anywhere near enough. And notice, they will push a lot of responsibility to the citizens about their choices but those choices will be between buying product A or product B. And about using Product C more judiciously. There will be nothing about forcing the manufacturers of such products to be more responsible. There will be nothing about making certain practices illegal. It will be about causing as little disruption to the richest people at the top.
Which is why people are expected to protest at the conference. And why the Danish state is anxious to prevent them from being a louder voice than the accepted "if you turn off your mobile phone charger when it is finished charging, you are a CLIMATE CHAMP" when protesters might insist that manufacturers stop making their products break within a few years so you must buy a new one and insist that they make chargers that switch themselves off. Or maybe suggest that you lived without a mobile for most of your life, what is the big deal with having one now?
If people were to appreciate how awful things are and how cowardly their democratic representatives are being in the face of very very rich influences; then that would be pretty embarrassing and rich people might be forced to be less wealthy.
Which is why the police are planning on forty day detention and challenging anyone who looks a bit dodgy. My prediction is that the protests will be quiet and peaceful until someone starts something and then the message of "The Conference is rearranging the deckchairs on the Titanic" will be lost to the State-desired message of "haha, anarchists, what a bunch of violent losers"
But you will know different, kind reader, you will know different.